What's Actually Happening in the Herndon Real Estate Market Right Now

If you've looked at Zillow lately and seen Herndon's median home price down 7% from last year, I want you to hang on before you panic or celebrate, because that number is telling you way less than it looks.

I pulled the real Bright MLS numbers for our 20170 zip code for June, and here's the truth: this isn't a market that's cooling off. It's a market where the mix of what's selling has shifted, and that shift is messing with the headline stats. Let me walk you through what I'm actually seeing on the ground, because I think it matters for anyone trying to buy or sell here this summer.

Fifty-three homes closed in Herndon this June, exactly the same number as June of last year. So volume held steady. But the median sold price dropped from $710,000 to $660,000, a 7% decline. If you stopped reading right there, you'd think the Herndon real estate market took a hit. It didn't. What actually happened is that we sold more detached single-family homes and fewer townhouses and condos than we did a year ago. Detached units sold jumped from 28 to 34, a 21% increase, while attached units, meaning townhomes and condos, dropped from 25 to 19. When the mix shifts toward more lower-priced attached inventory in one year and more detached inventory in the next, the median moves around even if individual home values haven't changed much at all.

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That's exactly what I'm seeing when I look at price per category instead of the blended number. Detached home prices in Herndon rose slightly, by 0.9%, to an average of $882,871. Attached homes, which include our townhouse and condo stock, saw their average sold price drop nearly 19% to $411,736.

That's a big swing, and I think it reflects a specific pocket of smaller, lower-priced attached units closing this June rather than any broad devaluation of townhomes in Herndon. If you own a townhouse here and you just read that 19% number and felt your stomach drop, please call me before you assume anything about what your specific home is worth. Averages like this get skewed hard by just a handful of transactions in a 53-sale month.

Here's the part of the Herndon real estate market that I actually think is the real story this summer: inventory is tight. Active listings sit at 35 homes right now, down nearly 48% from the 67 we had on the market this time last year. New listings coming to market are down 37% too.

That's a meaningful contraction in what buyers have to choose from, and it's happening at the same time demand hasn't slowed. Homes are still moving fast. Thirty of the 53 homes that closed in June sold within their first ten days on market. The overall average days on market ticked up slightly to 20, compared to 18 last year, but that's a small shift, and it's mostly being pulled by a couple of outliers, two homes that sat for well over six months, that don't represent what's happening with a well-priced, well-presented listing.

Sellers are still getting close to full price. The average sale-to-original-list-price ratio came in at 99.1%, barely off last year's 99.4%. In plain terms, homes priced accurately are still closing within a percentage point or two of their original listing price. I'm not seeing buyers negotiating hard across the board. I'm seeing them move quickly and decisively on the right homes, and pass on the ones priced ambitiously.

Financing tells its own story too. Of the 53 closings, 42 used conventional loans, which is the vast majority, with 5 FHA, 3 VA, and 3 cash. That's a pretty typical, healthy mix for our area and doesn't suggest any unusual strain on buyers trying to get deals done.

So where does that leave things if you're weighing a move in Herndon this summer? If you're a seller, the shrinking inventory is genuinely in your favor right now, especially for detached homes, which are in shorter supply and holding their value well. If you own an attached home, don't let that 19% average swing scare you off the market. It's a mix issue, not a value collapse, and the right comp analysis on your specific unit will tell a very different story than the blended zip code number. And if you're a buyer, the fact that 30 of June's 53 sales went under contract in the first ten days should tell you everything about how quickly you need to move when the right house hits.

Numbers like these are useful, but they only tell you about the market as a whole. Your street, your specific home, your specific townhouse building- that's a different conversation, and it's one I'd genuinely enjoy having with you.