In six weeks, the average 30-year mortgage rate climbed from 6.71% to 7.40%. If you've been watching listings in Fairfax, Loudoun, or Prince William and wondering whether to hit pause on your search, you're in good company. Plenty of buyers are asking the same thing.
Let's start with the numbers, because they're not small. Freddie Mac's weekly survey had the 30-year fixed at 6.71% on September 3. It crossed 7% on September 24 for the first time since January 2025, then reached 7.40% by October 8 and held there in the October 15 reading. A year ago, it was hovering around 6.3%. On a $600,000 loan, that's about $4,154 a month in principal and interest today versus about $3,714 then. Roughly $440 more, every month, before taxes and insurance. I won't pretend that doesn't sting.
Here's what buyers are getting in return. Northern Virginia recorded 1,250 closed sales in September, down 7.5% from a year ago, while active listings rose 30.7% to 3,477. Homes took an average of 28 days to sell, and months of supply reached 2.5, up nearly 30% from last year. In Fairfax County, homes averaged 26 days from listing to contract, a little slower than the five-year September average of 22 days, and showings were down almost 17%. Fewer buyers means less competition, and more homes sitting means more room to negotiate.
To be clear, this is still not a true buyer's market. Balanced is generally five to six months of supply, and we're at 2.5. Good homes in good locations still sell. But the leverage has shifted a little, and buying a home in Northern Virginia today feels different than it did even a year ago.
So should you wait? I can't tell you where rates are going, and neither can anyone else. What I can tell you is what I've watched over the years. I've worked through rates near 3% and rates above 7%, and the pattern is consistent: when rates fall, the buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines come back all at once. More buyers chasing the same homes tends to firm up prices and shrink the negotiating room you have right now. And if rates do come down after you buy, you can refinance the rate. You can't refinance the price. Whether a refinance makes sense depends on your credit, your costs, and where rates land, so there are no guarantees, but it's an option waiting doesn't give you.
That doesn't mean everyone should rush. If the payment at today's rate doesn't fit comfortably in your budget, waiting is the right call, and that's a decision about your numbers, not a forecast. I'm not a lender or a financial advisor, so sit down with a lender and look at your real figures before you decide.
If the payment does work, there are smart ways to approach buying a home in Northern Virginia right now. Ask for seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown, which can lower your monthly payment without raising the price. Use your inspection to negotiate, especially on listings that have been sitting more than a few weeks. Compare at least two or three lenders, because rate quotes can vary more than people expect. And look hard at homes that have had a price reduction, since sellers who've watched showings drop are often more flexible than their listing suggests.
I've sold 158 homes in Herndon since 2009, and I'm a Washingtonian Top Agent and an NVAR Platinum Top Producer. None of that changes the math on a mortgage. What it does mean is that I've seen enough cycles to know that the buyers who feel good about their decisions years later are rarely the ones who timed the market perfectly. They're the ones who bought a home they loved at a payment they could live with, and stayed long enough for the numbers to work in their favor.
The best time for buying a home in Northern Virginia is when the house, the payment, and your life line up. Rates are one piece of that, not the whole picture, and right now the other pieces are in a better place than the headlines suggest.
If you're thinking about making a move, buying, selling, or investing, let's talk. No pressure, just a real conversation about your options. 202-409-7513.
About LeAnne Anies & The Fox Homes Team
LeAnne Anies is a top-producing Herndon real estate agent and CEO of LeAnne + Company with the Fox Homes Team at Samson Properties, based in Herndon. She is a Washingtonian Top Agent and NVAR Platinum Top Producer, and a military spouse. LeAnne is on the most-reviewed real estate team in DC, Maryland, and Virginia, with 2,155+ five-star Google reviews. She has sold 375+ homes and $229M+ in lifetime volume.
