Showings in Fairfax County were down almost 17% in September compared to a year ago, and the average sales price still went up. That is the whole story of this market in one sentence, and if you're thinking about selling a home in Herndon before the holidays or heading into the new year, it's worth understanding why both of those things are true at once.
The numbers come from MarketStats by ShowingTime, reported by FFXnow this month. Pending sales across Fairfax County were down 17.1% year over year and showings were down 16.9%. But the average price of homes that closed in September rose 3% to $903,940, and those homes spent an average of 26 days between listing and contract, the same as last year. Fewer buyers are out looking, and the ones who are looking are serious.
Here's the pressure behind that. Freddie Mac had the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% in mid-October. A year ago it was around 6.3%. On a $600,000 loan, that works out to roughly $440 more per month in principal and interest, and rates have climbed about seven tenths of a point just since early September. Buyers feel that every month, and it changes how they shop. They tour fewer homes, they scrutinize condition, and they walk away from anything that feels overpriced.
Now the Herndon picture. In 20170, which includes downtown Herndon, Herndon Heights, Crestbrook, Hiddenbrook, Kingstream, Hastings Hunt, and Kingston Chase, recorded sales through July put the median sale price around $710,000, up 5.7% from the year before, across 473 sales in twelve months. One analytics platform currently scores 20170 as a seller's market. The typical home there is about 1,671 square feet and was built in 1983, and that matters more than most sellers realize. A lot of what buyers are touring is forty years old, and they're comparing it to every updated kitchen they've scrolled past on their phones.
The regional backdrop is worth knowing too. Northern Virginia closed 1,250 sales in September, down 7.5% from last year, while active listings jumped 30.7% to 3,477. Months of supply came in at 2.5, up almost 30% from a year ago. That's more choice for buyers than we've had in a while, but it's still well short of the five to six months that signals a balanced market. You are not selling into a buyer's market. You are also no longer selling into the frenzy.
So what do you do with all that?
When you're selling a home in Herndon, price for the buyer you're actually going to get, not the one you were hoping for. With showings down, the first two weeks on the market carry more weight than they used to, and an overpriced listing that sits tends to chase the market down instead of leading it. Present the house like it's competing, because it is. Fresh paint, clean light, a deep clean, and a few honest repairs will do more than almost any pricing strategy.
Then think about the monthly payment, because that's what your buyer is really shopping for. A seller credit toward a rate buydown is worth running past a lender, since sometimes those dollars do more for a buyer's payment than the same amount taken off the price. It isn't right for every deal, but it belongs in the conversation.
I've lived in Herndon since 2002 and have sold 158 homes here since 2009. I'm a Washingtonian Top Agent and an NVAR Platinum Top Producer, and I mention it only because it means I've watched this town move through some very different markets. This one is not 2021, and it's not 2009 either. It's a market that rewards sellers who are realistic, prepared, and patient enough to let the right buyer show up.
Selling a home in Herndon in the winter has a quiet advantage that people forget about. The buyers who are out in December and January are rarely just browsing. They have a reason to move, a lender behind them, and a deadline of their own. If your home is priced well and shows well, those buyers will find it and they will pay for it. The sellers who struggle are the ones still waiting for a market that isn't coming back.
If you're curious what your home is worth in today's market, I pull real Bright MLS data, no algorithms, no estimates. Just reach out and I'll send you the actual numbers. 202-409-7513.
About LeAnne Anies & The Fox Homes Team
LeAnne Anies is a top-producing Herndon real estate agent and CEO of LeAnne + Company with the Fox Homes Team at Samson Properties, based in Herndon. She is a Washingtonian Top Agent and NVAR Platinum Top Producer, and a military spouse. LeAnne is on the most-reviewed real estate team in DC, Maryland, and Virginia, with 2,155+ five-star Google reviews. She has sold 375+ homes and $229M+ in lifetime volume, including 158 homes in Herndon since 2009.
